[07SOFIA26] BULGARIA: PATIENCE WEARS THIN ON LIBYA MEDICS CASE

 date: 1/8/2007 14:41 refid: 07SOFIA26 origin: Embassy Sofia classification: SECRET destination: 06TRIPOLI785 header: VZCZCXRO2110 PP RUEHTRO DE RUEHSF #0026/01 0081441 ZNY SSSSS ZZH P 081441Z JAN 07 FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE REUHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI  ----------------- header ends ----------------  S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000026    SIPDIS    SIPDIS    DEPT FOR EUR/NCE, NEA/MAG    E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2017  TAGS: PREL, PHUM, LY, BU  SUBJECT: BULGARIA: PATIENCE WEARS THIN ON LIBYA MEDICS CASE    REF: A. 06 TRIPOLI 785         B. KARAGIANNIS-NORDBERG EMAIL (1/5/07)       C. 06 STATE 158074       D. 06 SOFIA 1683       E. 06 SOFIA 1695    SOFIA 00000026  001.2 OF 002      CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR JOHN BEYRLE, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).    1. (U) THIS IS AN ACTION REQUEST.  PLEASE SEE PARAGRAPH 9.    2. (C) SUMMARY: AS BULGARIA BEGINS THE NEW YEAR, PUBLIC  RANCOR IS STEADILY BUILDING OVER LIBYA'S DECEMBER 19  CONFIRMATION OF DEATH SENTENCES AGAINST FIVE BULGARIAN  NURSES.  AFTER A HOLIDAY SEASON MARKED BY HIGH-PROFILE  EXPRESSIONS OF SUPPORT FOR THE NURSES, BULGARIAN LEADERS SEEM  TO HAVE NO INTENTION OF RETURNING TO THE POLICY OF "QUIET  DIPLOMACY" -- NOW LARGELY SEEN AS A FAILURE.  WE HAVE  STRESSED TO THE GOB THAT ATTEMPTS TO INCREASE PRESSURE ON  LIBYA MAY SHRINK THE SPACE FOR DIPLOMATIC MANEUVER, BUT FOR  NOW, EMOTION -- NOT STRATEGIC THINKING -- IS GOVERNING THE  BULGARIAN RESPONSE.  BULGARIA IS CALLING A MEETING WITH  INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS IN SOFIA ON JANUARY 15-17 TO ASSESS  THE SITUATION AND DISCUSS STRATEGY; WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND  WASHINGTON REPRESENTATION IN THESE TALKS.  END SUMMARY.    "YOU ARE NOT ALONE"  -------------------    3. (C) FOR MANY BULGARIANS, THE CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR  HOLIDAYS WERE MARKED BY DEMONSTRATIONS OF SUPPORT FOR THE  NURSES: HOLIDAY LIGHTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WERE DIMMED IN  SOLIDARITY ON CHRISTMAS EVE, AND THE WEARING OF TRICOLOR "YOU  ARE NOT ALONE" RIBBONS HAS BECOME AN INCREASINGLY POPULAR  TREND.  EVEN AS CROWDS GATHERED IN SOFIA'S CENTRAL SQUARE TO  CELEBRATE BULGARIA'S ACCESSION TO THE EUROPEAN UNION ON NEW  YEAR'S EVE, RIBBONS WERE DISTRIBUTED AT SECURITY CHECKPOINTS  AND IMAGES OF THE RIBBONS BEAMED DOWN TO THE CROWD FROM  PROJECTION TVS.  ONGOING PRESS COVERAGE HAS KEPT THE ISSUE ON  THE FRONT BURNER, FUELED BY QADHAFI'S REPORTED DECEMBER 30  STATEMENT THAT THE INTERNATIONAL FUND FOR LIBYAN VICTIMS WAS  EMPTY AND THAT THE NURSES SHOULD NOT BE FREED WHILE CONVICTED  LOCKERBIE BOMBER ABEL BASET EL-MEGRAHI REMAINED IN PRISON.  ALTHOUGH REF. A REPORTS THAT QADHAFI DID NOT DIRECTLY LINK  THE FATE OF THE NURSES TO THE PANAM BOMBER, THE BULGARIAN  PRESS HAS FAILED TO SEE THIS DISTINCTION.  COMMON THEMES IN  THE PRESS INCLUDE SPECULATION THAT EU MEMBERSHIP WILL BRING  INCREASED PRESSURE TO BEAR ON LIBYA, CHARACTERIZATION OF THE  NURSES AS "HOSTAGES" OF LIBYA'S DEMAND FOR FINANCIAL  COMPENSATION, AND FEARS THAT BULGARIA'S U.S. AND EU ALLIES  MAY BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THEIR ECONOMIC INTERESTS IN LIBYA  THAN THE FATE OF THE NURSES.    4. (C) POLITICIANS HAVE WASTED NO TIME IN ATTEMPTING TO SEIZE  THIS NATIONAL MOOD.  PRESIDENT PARVANOV USED HIS ANNUAL NEW  YEARS EVE ADDRESS TO STRESS THAT THE IMPRISONED BULGARIANS  WERE "NOT...MEDICS, BUT OUR SISTERS."  IN A SEPARATE  INTERVIEW ON JANUARY 7, HE DESCRIBED THE NEGOTIATION PROCESS  AS GOING "BACK TO THE BEGINNING" AND SAID THAT BULGARIA WOULD  CONSIDER ALL DIPLOMATIC AND POLITICAL OPTIONS IN ITS ATTEMPT  TO WIN THE NURSES' FREEDOM.  ZLATIN TRAPKOV, THE PRESIDENT'S  CHIEF FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR, TOLD THE CHARGE ON JANUARY 5  THAT THE NURSES ISSUE WAS COMPLETELY DOMINATING THE  GOVERNMENT.  AN INCREASINGLY ANGRY PUBLIC MOOD HAS HAMPERED  POLITICAL LEADERS' ABILITY (AND IN MANY CASES DESIRE) TO  CONTINUE TO SEEK COMPROMISE.    A LOUDER VOICE FOR AMERICA?  ---------------------------    5. (C) PRIME MINISTER STANISHEV'S MAIN FOREIGN POLICY  ADVISOR, VALENTIN RADOMIRSKI, WAS MORE SPECIFIC, TELLING THE  CDA THAT WHILE HE UNDERSTANDS OUR POSITION VIS-A-VIS LIBYA,  WE NEED TO BE MORE VOCAL AND VISIBLE ON THE ISSUE FOR THE  SAKE OF OUR INTERESTS IN BULGARIA.   THE BULGARIAN PRESS  SEEMS TO BE DRAWING A SIMILAR CONCLUSION, GIVING EXTENSIVE  COVERAGE TO A JANUARY 3 ARTICLE IN THE U.S. JOURNAL NATURE  WHICH CONTRASTED HARSH EU CONDEMNATIONS OF THE LIBYAN COURT  RULING WITH AMERICAN EXPRESSIONS OF "DISAPPOINTMENT."    MOVING FORWARD  --------------    6. (S) AS IT RECONSIDERS ITS STRATEGY, THE GOB'S IMMEDIATE  INSTINCT IS TO HUDDLE WITH ITS FRIENDS.  IT HAS INVITED THE  U.S., UK, GERMANY, FRANCE AND LIBYA FOR TALKS IN SOFIA ON  JANUARY 15-16.  WHILE THE BULGARIANS STRONGLY DOUBT THE  LIBYANS WILL ATTEND, THEY HAVE ASKED US TO USE OUR CHANNELS  AND "LEVERAGE" TO ENCOURAGE THEM.  EVEN IF THEY DON'T ATTEND,  THE GOB WANTS TO USE THE MEETING TO DISCUSS THE CURRENT  SITUATION AND CONSIDER NEXT STEPS WITH EURO-ATLANTIC ALLIES    SOFIA 00000026  002.2 OF 002      FOLLOWING THE LIBYAN FOREIGN MINISTRY'S MEMO AND QADHAFI'S  STATEMENTS.    7. (C) THE GOB IS ALSO ATTEMPTING TO FOLLOW THROUGH ON ITS  PUBLIC PLEDGE TO SUPPORT THE NURSES' LEGAL DEFENSE.  PRESS  REPORTS CLAIM THAT THE MEDICS' LEGAL TEAM WILL BE REPLACED  BEFORE THEIR CASE IS REVIEWED BY THE LIBYAN SUPREME COURT,  AND MINISTRY OF JUSTICE SOURCES CONFIRM THAT DEPUTY JUSTICE  MINISTER MARGARIT GEORGIEV WILL VISIT TRIPOLI FROM JANUARY  11-16 TO MEET THE DETAINEES AND DISCUSS THEIR LEGAL STRATEGY.   THE NURSES' FAMILY MEMBERS HAVE ALREADY OBTAINED LIBYAN  VISAS AND PERMISSION TO VISIT THEIR RELATIVES.  THEY WILL  DEPART FOR LIBYA ON JANUARY 9 FOR A ONE WEEK STAY.    8. (C) A POTENTIAL WILD CARD IN BULGARIA'S STRATEGY IS THE  CHIEF PROSECUTOR'S ANNOUNCEMENT OF AN INVESTIGATION INTO  TORTURE OF THE BULGARIAN MEDICS BY LIBYAN OFFICIALS.  CONTACTS WITHIN THE PROSECUTION SERVICE TELL US THAT THE  INVESTIGATION IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON COLLECTING "THIRD-PARTY  TESTIMONY" FROM THE NURSES' FAMILIES.  THE MOVE IS LIKELY  MORE POLITICAL THAN JUDICIAL -- PROSECUTORS REALIZE THAT ANY  SUCH INVESTIGATION IS SYMBOLIC AT BEST, AS IT WOULD RELY ON  LETTERS ROGATORY FOR COLLECTION OF NECESSARY EVIDENCE FROM  LIBYA.  (NOTE: CHIEF PROSECUTOR BORIS VELCHEV WORKED  EXTENSIVELY ON THE NURSES' CASE IN HIS PREVIOUS POST AS LEGAL  ADVISOR TO THE PRESIDENT.)    COMMENT AND ACTION REQUEST:  ---------------------------    9. (C) THE LIBYAN COURT'S DECISION CAME AS NO SURPRISE TO  BULGARIAN LEADERS, BUT UNEXPECTEDLY STRONG STATEMENTS FROM  THE EU AND EUROPEAN LEADERS -- AS WELL AS QADHAFI'S OWN TOUGH  RHETORIC -- HAVE PUSHED BULGARIAN OFFICIALS TO ABANDON THE  MORE RESTRAINED APPROACH WE HAD COUNSELED DURING FM KALFIN'S  VISIT TO WASHINGTON.  BULGARIAN LEADERS ARE CLEARLY  DISCOURAGED AT THE LACK OF RESULTS FROM THEIR PATIENT POLICY,  WHILE "QUIET DIPLOMACY" IS ALL BUT DISCREDITED AMONG THE  BULGARIAN PUBLIC.  IN ORDER TO KEEP BULGARIAN POLICY ON  TRACK, WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND PARTICIPATION BY A DEPARTMENT  EXPERT AT BULGARIA'S PLANNED CONSULTATIONS ON JANUARY 15-17.  IN THE MEANTIME, WE APPRECIATE EMBASSY TRIPOLI'S CONTINUING  ANALYSIS ON HOW THE TOUGH BULGARIAN AND EUROPEAN REACTION TO  DEVELOPMENTS IN LIBYA IS INFLUENCING LIBYAN THINKING AND  ACTIONS ON THE NURSES' CASE.    BEYRLE