Published by Wikileaks & Bivol.bg
date: 6/18/2009 8:01 refid: 09SOFIA301 origin: Embassy Sofia classification: CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN destination: header: VZCZCXRO6792 OO RUEHSL DE RUEHSF #0301/01 1690801 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 180801Z JUN 09 FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6081 INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000301 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2028 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, BU SUBJECT: BULGARIA: FROM PRISON TO PARLIAMENT Classified By: Ambassador McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Corrupt, compromised and even recently incarcerated candidates appear poised to enter parliament in this summer's national elections. In the latest negative development, a June 16 court decision freed the notorious Galevi brothers on bail, pending their trial on racketeering and money laundering charges. This ruling enables them to campaign for local parliamentary seats, gaining temporary immunity from prosecution. Meanwhile, fringe and extremist parties hover at the threshold for parliamentary representation. Leader (founded by shady energy boss Hristo Kovachki) and Order, law and Justice (OLJ, founded by Yane Yanev, a political charlatan) both have suspiciously large and opaque funding streams and are positioned to draw votes from the mainstream parties. The ultra-nationalist Ataka will grab close to ten percent. Turnout by a "soft" electorate )- notably undecided and floating voters disgusted with politics and prone to protest parties )- may well determine the race. While the outcome is still very much in the air, there is a strong stench of malevolent manipulation of the electoral system by entrenched and unscrupulous interests. END SUMMARY. GET OUT OF JAIL FREE CARD? 2. (SBU) Bulgarians had thought they had seen it all when it comes to stacking the electoral decks. They were wrong. Accused criminals are now brazenly running for elected office in a transparent attempt to escape justice, taking advantage of a constitutional provision that grants members of parliament immunity from prosecution. Registered candidates for Parliament are also immune from prosecution during the 3-week campaign period. The infamous Galevi brothers, powerful mafia leaders in the town of Dupnitsa, just south of Sofia, have registered as candidates for Parliament. Despite blistering media commentary and national revulsion, one of the two has a chance to win thanks to a well-oiled vote-buying machine, coercion and local connections. CHEAPER TO BECOME AN MP THAN BUY THEM 3. (C) The Leader party, the creation of a widely considered corrupt businessman, is another stain on Bulgaria's image. An energy magnate, currently being investigated for massive tax fraud, Kovachki was ranked last year as the second richest Bulgarian (after another reputed crime boss) and 98th richest person in Eastern Europe. The source of Kovachki's wealth remains a mystery; he has amassed a mini-energy empire based on coal, suggesting ties to criminal elements in the extractive industries sector and insider deals with government officials and patrons. He is a known associate of influential underworld figures involved in various smuggling and racketeering operations. His party claims to represent business interests and supports EU integration and transparent government (sic). 4. (C) It is widely believed that, tired of paying bribes to sitting MPs, Kovachki established the party as a more direct and cost-effective way to expand his political influence. His party gained notoriety for its vote-buying success in local elections last year and has allegedly used coercion to force employees at Kovachki's many business operations to support the party. Although Leader barely missed the threshold for a seat in the European Parliament, polls show that the party has a realistic shot of entering the next national parliament. With support currently hovering around four percent, Leader could enter the 240-member parliament with perhaps 10-15 seats. If so, it will leverage its representation to bargain its way into a coalition government. Though none of the traditional center right parties have much use for Leader, its vote could be the margin for coalition formation. Leader is likely to siphon votes from front-leading GERB to the benefit of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and ethnic Turkish MRF, suggesting that there is a tacit underground alliance of interests between them. A "CLOWN" FIGHTS CORRUPTION? 5. (C) A new entry in the political landscape is the Order, Law and Justice party centered on Yane Yanev, dubbed "the clown of Bulgarian politics". Yanev rose to prominence in recent months by making outrageous and defamatory claims against the current government. OLJ party funding sources are entirely unclear, though sufficient for a very slick new office headquarters and top flight consultants. His campaign motto is "Let's Stop Corruption," but his commitment is paper thin. Filled with political opportunists, OLJ lacks credibility. Most analysts believe Yanev is a creation of the ruling Bulgarian Socialist Party designed to take votes away from its more mainstream rival GERB. Yanev claims OLJ has 38,000 members and a national organization, but after an SOFIA 00000301 002 OF 002 early surge in public interest, its popularity may have peaked. OLJ currently polls around 4.69 percent, which would be just enough to enter parliament. PROTEST, RADICAL VOTE BOOST ATAKA CHANCES 6. (C) The extreme nationalist party Ataka, which won two seats in the European Parliament, is certain to enter Parliament. Ataka is strongly and vocally anti-NATO and anti-U.S. and relies on populist anti-government and anti-minority rhetoric. Autocratic party leader Volen Siderov is a well-known journalist who gained notoriety for his outbursts in parliament. Infighting, defections, and high-profile scandals that eroded Ataka's parliamentary group over the past four years have not undermined Ataka's electoral support. Portraying itself as the only real alternative to the status quo, Ataka brands all major parties as "political mafia." It attracts the protest vote of the extreme left and right and draws support from people living on the margins of society and former army and security officers. It fills a specific electoral niche by offering easy solutions to painful social problems and speaking openly about sensitive ethnic issues considered taboo by the mainstream parties. 7. (C) Over the past year, Ataka has modulated its tone in hopes of becoming respectable enough to join the next ruling coalition. It has shaded its anti-Western/U.S., anti-Turkish, and anti-Roma rhetoric, focusing instead on the plight of the elderly and combating widespread corruption. At the same time, Ataka maintains its rebellious image by boycotting parliamentary sessions and sharpening its anti-government rhetoric. It successfully exploits ethnic Bulgarians' distaste for the ethnic Turkish MRF, a junior coalition partner widely viewed as a vehicle for corruption. (Ataka and MRF symbiotically use each other in galvanizing their bases.) Despite Ataka's attempts to moderate its message, mainstream parties consider it a coalition partner of last resort. 8. (SBU) COMMENT: Crooks and cranks are crowding the Bulgarian political scene. While the majority of Bulgarian voters will back traditional parties, many are so disgusted by them that they look for alternatives and see few attractive choices. The irony is that voter disillusionment can translate into more miscreants entering Parliament. Low turnout increases the impact of vote buying and elevates the chance that small corrupt parties will do well. That would damage Bulgaria's already tarnished image, complicate coalition formation, increase domestic tension, and snarl relations with us and the EU. While Bulgaria's overall foreign policy would not appreciably change, a weak and indecisive coalition government would face painful economic decisions. And it would feed into more voter alienation. That's a worst case outcome, but we should not discount it. McEldowney
