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date: 3/22/2005 15:01 refid: 05SOFIA548 origin: Embassy Sofia classification: SECRET destination: 04SOFIA2054|04SOFIA2261|05SOFIA436|05SOFIA524 header: This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. S E C R E T SOFIA 000548 SIPDIS FOR THE SECRETARY FROM AMBASSADOR PARDEW E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2015 TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MOPS, MARR, EFIN, LY, IZ, BU, EUN SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT TO WASHINGTON OF BULGARIAN FOREIGN MINISTER SOLOMON PASSY REF: A) SOFIA 0524 B) SOFIA 0436 C) 04 SOFIA 2054 (NOTAL) D) 04 SOFIA 2261 D) Classified By: Ambassador James Pardew, reasons 1.5(b) and (d). ------- SUMMARY ------- 1. (C) SUMMARY. Bulgarian Foreign Minister Solomon Passy's meeting with you on March 25 is an opportunity to shape Bulgaria's commitment to the Iraq coalition as the government searches for an exit strategy. Passy has consistently been the most pro-American voice in this government on the full range of bilateral relations. Though he will certainly raise other issues, his primary purpose in requesting a meeting with you is to secure an invitation to the White House before Bulgaria's June 25 elections for the former king and current Prime Minister, Simeon Saxe-Coburg Gotha. We support a Simeon-POTUS meeting because it is in our interest to see Simeon's party do well in the upcoming elections, and because it will help the government shore up support for its policy on Iraq. Passy and the government he represents now view every issue through the lens of the June elections, which the opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) would win if they were held today. The Socialists have made Bulgaria's withdrawal from Iraq a major campaign theme. The most recent opinion poll shows that roughly two-thirds of the Bulgarian population favors withdrawal from Iraq either immediately or right after the June elections. This, combined with the killing of another Bulgarian soldier on March 4 , has put the government on the defensive and led it to seek ways to neutralize the war in Iraq as a campaign issue (refs A-B). 2. (C) The Council of Ministers is set to discuss an exit strategy at its next meeting on March 24, and to decide the issue on March 31. Despite our repeated, high-level recommendation that the government avoid a date certain and instead focus on conditions in Iraq, the government may reach a decision to withdraw Bulgarian forces from Iraq at the end of 2005, when the fifth Bulgarian battalion completes its scheduled six-month rotation. Passy will be seeking concrete "deliverables" from the U.S. that the ruling party can use with the electorate to counter the perception that this government has received nothing in return for its sacrifices in Iraq. Deputy Secretary Zoellick will meet with President Purvanov, the Prime Minister and Passy in Sofia on March 30. END SUMMARY. ---------------- WHAT PASSY WANTS ---------------- 3. (C) This government has felt for months that its contributions to the Coalition in Iraq and the broader war on terrorism are under-appreciated by the U.S. (refs C-D). Passy is likely to repeat the theme that his government needs concrete benefits to show Bulgarian voters that their country is a valuable member of the Coalition. In the past, this list included reconstruction contracts for Bulgarian companies, repayment of Iraqi debt, inclusion in the Visa Waiver Program, negotiation of a treaty on the avoidance of double taxation, and help with the release of the Bulgarian medics in Libya. Passy is realistic enough to know that debt repayment and the visa waiver are probably non-starters at this point, but that will not stop him from pressing for a concrete demonstration of U.S. support. At the top of his list will be a White House meeting for the Prime Minister. Simeon badly wants such a meeting, and has approached us through Passy and other trusted confidants. The Prime Minister knows that President Purvanov beat him to the punch by formally requesting a meeting with President Bush through Bulgaria's ambassador in Washington last January. Purvanov, the former leader of the BSP, has taken a responsible position on Iraq and also deserves a meeting. However, we do not recommend a Parvanov visit until after the Bulgarian elections, because a White House meeting would give a political boost to the Socialists ----------------------------- WHAT'S DRIVING THE GOVERNMENT ----------------------------- 4. (C) Simeon's interest in meeting POTUS is two-fold: to dispel the notion that Bulgaria is not a valued ally of the United States, and to help close the gap between his party and the Socialists on the eve of elections. We see both goals as being in the U.S. interest. First, a White House meeting at this stage in the domestic debate over Iraq will help shore up support for a significant Bulgarian presence in Iraq, at least until key political milestones are reached. And second, closing the gap between the Prime Minister's party and the Socialists favors our interests after June 25. Inside the government, the Prime Minister's party will be a force for continuity in foreign policy. While a Socialist victory would not be a total disaster for us, it would make our job much more difficult on a wide range of issues we care about. 5. (C) The current government has a record that most politicians would be glad to run on: steady five-percent economic growth, low inflation, falling unemployment, a stable currency, booming real estate and tourism sectors, NATO membership, the best relationship with the U.S. in Bulgaria's history, and -- as of April 25 -- the signing of Bulgaria's EU Accession Treaty. Yet they have so far been unable to translate these successes into electoral support, in part because they are a new party without strong grassroots organization and in part because the Prime Minister himself is remarkably passive. If Passy complains about the need for deliverables to shore up public support, you can point out that an effective domestic campaign is more important to their political future than a single meeting. ----------------------- ISSUES YOU SHOULD RAISE ----------------------- 6. (C) The U.S. military's investigation into the killing of Bulgarian Sergeant Gurdi Gurdev on March 4 is not complete as of this writing, but you should express our condolences for this, the eighth Bulgarian soldier killed in Iraq. You should praise Passy for Bulgaria's deployment of troops in Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, and Bosnia, as well as their initial contribution of five trainers to the NATO mission in Iraq. Bulgaria will also take over responsibility for security of the Kabul airport in 2006. 7. (C) On Iraq, you should encourage Passy to link Bulgaria's withdrawal to a set of conditions in Iraq, rather an arbitrary date certain. In Sofia we have advised them to link their strategy to the approval of a constitution, the holding of parliamentary elections under that constitution and the development of the Iraqi security forces. In the meantime, they should maintain their battalion-strength capability in Diwania and start planning for a significant increase in their contribution to the NATO training mission. 8. (S) You should note that cooperation between our intelligence services in the global war on terrorism has been extraordinary. 9. (C) You should assure Passy that we will follow through vigorously on our efforts to secure the release of six Bulgarian nurses held in Libya for seven years on charges of infecting some 400 children with HIV. This is an issue that touches ordinary Bulgarians deeply, and it is hard to imagine an area where the U.S. could potentially gain more goodwill with Bulgarians across the political spectrum. It is also an area where we have been forthcoming. Passy will thank you for U.S. support and Ambassador Bill Burns' personal attention to this issue. Finally, the one area where this government has fallen short of expectations is in strengthening the rule of law. Corruption and organized crime are endemic here, and the government has done little to stem the tide. If there is a shortcoming that could hamper Bulgaria's political and economic development, this is it. 10. (SBU) Deputy Secretary Zoellick will meet in Sofia March 30 with the President Purvanov, the Prime Minister and Passy.
