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date: 2/19/1997 14:01 refid: 97SOFIA1105 origin: Embassy Sofia classification: CONFIDENTIAL destination: 97SOFIA1047 header: P 191401Z FEB 97 FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9111 INFO USEU BRUSSELS EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SOFIA 001105 E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/18/07 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, BU SUBJECT: BULGARIA'S UNION OF DEMOCRATIC FORCES UNITES AS A "PARTY," PLANS PARLIAMENTARY PRIMARIES REF: SOFIA 1047 1.(U) CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES A.I. ROSE LIKINS. REASON: 1.5(D). 2.(C) SUMMARY: AT THE FEB. 15-16 NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF BULGARIA'S UNION OF DEMOCRATIC FORCES (UDF), ROUGHLY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 SOFIA 01105 01 OF 03 191403Z 4000 DELEGATES ENTHUSIASTICALLY AGREED TO UNIFY THE UDF'S 15 CONSTITUENT PARTIES INTO A SINGLE POLITICAL PARTY; RE-ELECTED IVAN KOSTOV AS CHAIRMAN; ENDORSED PARLIAMENTARY PRIMARIES; AND AUTHORIZED COALITION NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE UDF'S UNITED OPPOSITION PARTNERS, THE PEOPLES UNION AND THE MOVEMENT FOR RIGHTS AND FREEDOM. WHILE NOT LONG AGO PARTY UNIFICATION AND KOSTOV'S RE-ELECTION WERE BY NO MEANS A SURE THING, DELEGATES, JUBILANT FROM THE END OF SOCIALIST RULE AND THE STELLAR PERFORMANCE OF THEIR MAN IN THE PRESIDENCY, GAVE UDF LEADERS THEIR FULL SUPPORT, AND THE CAREFULLY ORCHESTRATED CONFERENCE WENT OFF WITHOUT A HITCH. PRESIDENT STOYANOV ADDRESSED THE ASSEMBLY, THANKING THE UDF FOR HIS MANDATE TO BE "PRESIDENT OF ALL BULGARIANS" AND WISHING THE UDF SUCCESS IN ITS NEAR-CERTAIN FUTURE GOVERNMENT. IN A RELATED DEVELOPMENT ON FEB. 18, PRESIDENT STOYANOV YIELDED TO UDF DEMANDS THAT HE REJECT A CONTENTIOUS, SOCIALIST-SPONSORED CHANGE IN BULGARIA'S ELECTION LAW. END SUMMARY. UDF LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS, CONVERSION TO A PARTY --------------------------------------------- -- 3.(C) THE FEB. 15-16 NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF BULGARIA'S UNION OF DENOCRATIC FORCES (BULGARIA'S LARGEST OPPOSITION FORCE WHILE THE SOCIALIST PARTY WAS IN OFFICE THESE LAST TWO YEARS) WAS A WELL-PLANNED AND WELL-ORCHESTRATED EVENT. OVER 4000 UDF DELEGATES ENTHUSIASTICALLY ENDORSED THE POLITICAL AGENDA OF UDF CHAIRMAN IVAN KOSTOV AND RE-ELECTED HIM AND THE REST OF THE UDF LEADERSHIP. STILL RADIANT FROM THE OVERWHELMING NOV. 3 ELECTORAL VICTORY OF THEIR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 SOFIA 01105 01 OF 03 191403Z PETAR STOYANOV, A MONTH OF SUCCESSFUL PROTESTS AGAINST A SECOND SOCIALIST GOVERNMENT, AND THE SCHEDULING OF PRE-TERM PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, UDF CONFERENCE DELEGATES GAVE HEARTY SUPPORT TO THEIR EXECUTIVE COUNCIL'S CALL FOR UDF UNIFICATION INTO A SINGLE PARTY. WHEREAS ONLY A FEW MONTHS AGO A SUBSTANTIAL MINORITY QUESTIONED KOSTOV'S LEADERSHIP AND PARTICULARLY HIS EFFORTS TO NEGOTIATE WITH MORE MODERATE SOCIALIST DEPUTIES, NOW THE UDF LEADERSHIP COULD DO NO WRONG. 4.(U) THE DELEGATES READILY VOTED TO ACCEPT NEW STATUTES UNIFYING THE UDF'S 15 CONSTITUENT PARTIES INTO A SINGLE POLITICAL PARTY, ELIMINATING THE UDF NATIONAL COORDINATING COUNCIL, TRANSFERRING ITS RESPONSIBILITIES TO THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL (NEC), AND EXPANDING MEMBERSHIP OF THE NEC FROM SEVEN MEMBERS TO ELEVEN. (COMMENT: THE CUMBERSOME AND QUARRELSOME NATIONAL COORDINATING COUNCIL GAVE UNDUE WEIGHT TO SOME OF THE MINUTE PARTIES THAT MADE UP THE UDF COALITION. THE COUNCIL HAD COMPRISED 139 MEMBERS: 3 FROM EACH OF THE MEMBER PARTIES, 59 MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT, 7 MEMBERS OF THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL, AND 28 UDF REGIONAL COUNCIL CHIEFS.) 5.(U) KOSTOV RAN UNOPPOSED FOR PARTY CHAIRMAN AND WAS RE-ELECTED BY A SHOW OF HANDS. LAWYER MP HRISTO BISSEROV WAS SIMILARLY ELECTED AS THE PARTY'S CHIEF SECRETARY. IN A SECRET BALLOT, DELEGATES, CHOOSING FROM 21 CANDIDATES, ELECTED FOUR DEPUTY CHAIRMEN: MP NADEZHEDA MIHAILOVA, MP EKATERINA MIHAILOVA, UDF FLOOR LEADER IN THE PREVIOUS PARLIAMENT MP IORDAN SOKOLOV, AND CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 SOFIA 01105 01 OF 03 191403Z SOFIA UDF CHAIRMAN AND WIDELY APPLAUDED COORDINATOR OF RECENT PROTEST ACTIVITY EVGENI BAKURDJIEV. ALSO ELECTED TO THE UDF NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL WERE ALEXANDER BOZHKOV (DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND MINISTER OF INDUSTRY IN THE CARETAKER CABINET), ECONOMIST MP MURAVEI RADEV, LAWYER MP VASSIL GOTSEV AND UDF FORMER LEADER, FORMER PRIME MINISTER, AND INJURED PROTEST VETERAN FILIP DIMITROV. THE 11-MEMBER NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE UDF'S FUTURE PARLIANENTARY GROUP LEADER. STOYANOV AND KOSTOV ADDRESS THE FUTURE GOVERNING PARTY --------------------------------------------- --------- 6.(U) THE PARTY CONFERENCE WAS KICKED OFF BY AN APPEARANCE BY UDF FAVORITE SON, BULGARIAN PRESIDENT PETAR STOYANOV. CAREFULLY ACKNOWLEDGING HIS UDF R00TS WHILE MAINTAINING HIS R0LE AS NATI0NAL LEADER, ST0YAN0V EXPRESSED HIS THANKS F0R HAVING BEEN GIVEN THE UDF'S CLEAR MANDATE T0 BE A PRESIDENT T0 ALL BULGARIANS. HE STRESSED THAT, AFTER THE UPC0MING APRIL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTI0NS, THE DIFFICULT RESP0NSIBILITY 0F RULING BULGARIA WILL M0ST LIKELY G0 T0 THE UDF, AND HE EXPRESSED PRIDE THAT THE UDF IS A NATI0NALLY RESP0NSIBLE F0RCE, READY T0 GOVERN. IN WISHING SUCCESS TO THE UDF CONFIDENTIAL NNNNPTQ4754 CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4754 PAGE 01 SOFIA 01105 02 OF 03 191404Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 ACDA-10 ACDE-00 INLB-01 AID-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-01 OASY-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 FBIE-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-01 ADS-00 M-00 NRRC-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 P-00 CIO-00 SCT-00 SP-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-09 G-00 /027W ------------------9B6B9E 191404Z /38 P 191401Z FEB 97 FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9112 INFO USEU BRUSSELS EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 SOFIA 001105 E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/18/07 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, BU SUBJECT: BULGARIA'S UNION OF DEMOCRATIC FORCES UNITES AS A "PARTY," PLANS PARLIAMENTARY PRIMARIES C0NFERENCE, HE SAID HE H0PED THAT THIS W0ULD MEAN SUCCESS F0R BULGARIA. 7.(U) PARTY CHAIRMAN K0ST0V, DESCRIBING THE UDF AS THE F0RCE F0R CHANGE AND GUARANT0R 0F RIGHTS, FREED0MS, AND A EUR0PEAN 0RIENTATI0N, 8TRESSED THE IMPORTANCE 0F AD0PTING THE NEW PARTY STRUCTURE, N0TING THAT THE UDF CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 SOFIA 01105 02 OF 03 191404Z HAD T0 ESTABLISH 0RDER IN ITS 0WN RANKS T0 SH0W THAT IT C0ULD ESTABLISH 0RDER IN THE C0UNTRY. SIGNIFICANTLY, K0ST0V ALS0 STR0NGLY EXH0RTED THE ASSEMBLY T0 REMEMBER THE IMP0RTANT R0LE PLAYED T0 DATE BY THE UNIFIED 0PP0SITI0N AND ARGUED F0R C0NTINUED C0ALITI0N IN THE ELECTIONS AND IN G0VERNMENT. LESS T0 HIS CREDIT, HE ALS0 MADE THE TRADITI0NAL BUT GRATUIT0US SLAP AT FORMER PRESIDENT ZHELEV, BLAMING HIM F0R THE FALL 0F THE FIRST UDF G0VERNMENT UNDER FILIP DIMITR0V IN 1992. C0NFERENCE DECISI0NS: PRIMARIES AND C0ALITI0N BUILDING --------------------------------------------- ---------- 8.(C) UDF MP ASEN AG0V C0MMENTED T0 P0L0FFS AT THE C0NFERENCE'S C0NCLUSI0N THAT ITS SUCCESS WAS T0 HAVE BEEN EXPECTED AS THE LEADERSHIP HAD CAREFULLY PLANNED THE RESULTS IN ADVANCE. INDEED, THE C0NFERENCE PR0VIDED AMPLE 0PP0RTUNITY F0R DELEGATES T0 V0ICE THEIR VIEWS IN A SUCCESSI0N 0F 3-MINUTE SPEECHES, BUT THEY ULTIMATELY APPROVED PREVIOUSLY DRAFTED PROGRAM DOCUMENTS AND AUTHORIZED THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL TO TAKE STEPS THAT WERE PRE-SCRIPTED, ALBEIT WIDELY ENDORSED BY THE DELEGATES. IN ADDITION TO ADVOCATING PARTY UNIFICATION, MANY DELEGATES DECRIED THE COUNTRY'S DISMAL SITUATION, CALLED FOR THOSE RESPONSIBLE TO BE BROUGHT TO JUSTICE, AND ADVOCATED "LUSTRATION" POLICIES TO RID STATE INSTITUTIONS OF COMMUNIST INFLUENCE. 9.(U) IN ADDITION TO ACCEPTING ITS LEADERSHIP'S POLITICAL PROGRAM, CONFERENCE DELEGATES AUTHORIZED THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL TO TAKE THE FOLLOWING ACTIONS: CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 SOFIA 01105 02 OF 03 191404Z -- TO DEVELOP AN ELECTORAL PLATFORM TO GUARANTEE BULGARIA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY, COMBAT ORGANIZED CRIME, ATTRACT FOREIGN FINANCING AND INVESTMENT, AND CARRY OUT SOCIAL MARKET REFORM, PRIVATIZATION, AND LAND RESTITUTION -- TO DEVELOP A UNIFIED PERSONNEL POLICY (NOTE: A REFERENCE TO QUESTIONS OF PAST COMMUNIST ASSOCIATIONS); -- TO PROVIDE FOR MP CANDIDATE SELECTION THROUGH PRIMARIES; -- TO CONDUCT NEGOTIATIONS WITH UNITED OPPOSITION PARTNERS FOR A PRE-ELECTORAL COALITION ON THE BASIS OF A GENERAL PLATFORM AND PRIMARY ELECTIONS; AND -- TO CONCLUDE A PRE-ELECTION AGREEMENT WITH UNITED OPPOSITION PARTNERS FOR A POST-ELECTION COALITION GOVERNMENT. COMMENT ------- 10.(C) THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND UNIFYING THE UDF WAS ITS CHAIRMAN IVAN KOSTOV, WHO HAD FOR MONTHS ADVOCATED FORMATION OF A SINGLE PARTY PRIOR TO PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. AMONG OTHER REASONS, KOSTOV WANTED TO FORM A SINGLE UNIFIED PARTY SO THAT HE WOULD NOT BE FACED WITH CONFLICTING MINISTERIAL PORTFOLIO DEMANDS FROM 15 UDF MEMBER PARTIES (MANY TINY AND THIN ON EXPERTISE) IF THE UDF CAME TO POWER. NOT SURPRISINGLY, WHEN FIRST PROPOSED OFFICIALLY BY THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE BOARD ON CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 SOFIA 01105 02 OF 03 191404Z NOV. 19, THIS NOTION FACED STIFF RESISTANCE FROM THE LEADERS OF A NUMBER OF THE SMALL PARTIES WHO FEARED LOSING THEIR OWN PERSONAL POWER OR INFLUENCE. KOSTOV THUS CAME UNDER SERIOUS THREAT OF LOSING HIS LEADERSHIP POST, BUT HIS P0SITI0N WAS B0LSTERED GREATLY BY THE SUCCESS 0F THE RECENT ANTI-S0CIALIST PR0TESTS. 11. (C) N0W WITH A UNIFIED PARTY BEHIND HIM, K0ST0V AND 0THER UDF LEADERS STILL FACE AN EN0RMOUS CHALLENGE TO 0RGANIZE AND ADMINISTER PRIMARIES AND SUBSEQUENT ELECT0RAL CAMPAIGNS IN LESS THAN TW0 M0NTHS. A RELATED AND EQUALLY DIFFICULT CHALLENGE WILL BE T0 NEG0TIATE C0ALITI0N ARRANGEMENTS WITH THEIR UNITED 0PP0SITI0N PARTNERS, WH0 ARE N0T AS WELL-EQUIPPED T0 PARTICIPATE IN PRIMARIES AND WH0 WILL HAVE P0RTF0LI0 DEMANDS 0F THEIR 0WN. THE C0NTENTI0US ISSUE 0F L0WERING THE THRESH0LD F0R ENTRY INT0 PARLIAMENT FR0M F0UR PERCENT T0 THREE PERCENT (AN ELECTION LAW AMENDMENT PUSHED THROUGH BY THE S0CIALIST PARTY 0N THE PARLIAMENT'S LAST DAY IN SESSI0N - REFTEL) COMES INT0 PLAY HERE. 0N FEB. 18, PRESIDENT STOYAN0V YIELDED TO K0STOV'S INSISTENCE THAT HE REJECT ELECTI0N LAW AMENDMENTS BECAUSE 0F THIS PR0P0SED CHANGE. THE FALL-0UT FROM THE RETENTI0N 0F THE F0UR PERCENT BARRIER IS UNCERTAIN BUT WILL BE A KEY FACT0R IN CONFIDENTIAL NNNNPTQ4755 CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4755 PAGE 01 SOFIA 01105 03 OF 03 191404Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 ACDA-10 ACDE-00 INLB-01 AID-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-01 OASY-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 FBIE-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-01 ADS-00 M-00 NRRC-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 P-00 CIO-00 SCT-00 SP-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-09 G-00 /027W ------------------9B6B9F 191404Z /38 P 191401Z FEB 97 FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9113 INFO USEU BRUSSELS EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 SOFIA 001105 E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/18/07 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, BU SUBJECT: BULGARIA'S UNION OF DEMOCRATIC FORCES UNITES AS A "PARTY," PLANS PARLIAMENTARY PRIMARIES THE UDF'S NEG0TIATI0N WITH THE MAINLY ETHNIC TURKISH M0VEMENT F0R RIGHTS AND FREED0MS, THE SPLINTERED AGRARIAN UNI0N 0F ANASTASIYA M0SER, AND STEFAN SAV0V'S DEM0CRATIC PARTY. LIKINS
