Published by Wikileaks & Bivol.bg
date: 8/30/2006 14:26 refid: 06SOFIA1230 origin: Embassy Sofia classification: CONFIDENTIAL destination: header: VZCZCXRO2221 PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHSF #1230 2421426 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 301426Z AUG 06 FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2458 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE REUHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI ----------------- header ends ---------------- C O N F I D E N T I A L SOFIA 001230 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2016 TAGS: PREL, PHUM, LY, BG SUBJECT: BULGARIAN PRISONERS IN LIBYA: SOFIA SEEKS CONTINUED SUPPORT AS END-GAME NEARS REF: EMBASSY TRIPOLI E-MAIL 8/29/06 Classified By: CDA Alex Karagiannis, reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 1. (C) SUMMARY. After the August 29 court hearing in Tripoli (ref), Bulgarian officials are showing signs of guarded optimism that the current judicial process may run its course before the end of September. This would open the way for a political decision to return to Bulgaria the six nurses imprisoned since 1999 on charges of deliberately spreading the HIV virus in Benghazi. The GOB is keeping a low public-affairs profile as the process unfolds, and counts on continued behind-the-scenes pressure on Libya from the U.S. and EU. The MFA thanked us for the Department's August 29 statement in support of the nurses. END SUMMARY. 2. (C) We met August 30 with Petko Doykov, the director of the MFA's Middle East Department, to discuss the results of the previous day's court hearing in Tripoli. Doykov said the latest trial is unfolding according to Bulgarian expectations. He believes the court will hold one or two more hearings and reach a verdict "in mid September." Doykov said that at the last session of the four-party talks with Libya, Bulgaria emphasized that reaffirmation of the death penalty would be an unacceptable outcome. Instead, the GOB hopes to see sentences ranging between 15 years to life imprisonment. There is no expectation that the nurses will be found not guilty or otherwise set free by the current court. On the other hand, reaffirmation of the death sentences would put the Bulgarian government in a difficult political position, according to Doykov, forcing it to respond publicly. The tenor of the Bulgarian response will also be influenced by the proximity of presidential elections, scheduled to take place October 22. 3. (C) In either case, Bulgaria believes it has a tacit understanding with Libya and the other parties to the talks that the nurses will be returned to Bulgaria in short order following the conclusion of the trial. Most likely, this would involve allowing the nurses to "serve out their sentences" in Bulgaria according to the terms of the two countries' bilateral agreement on prisoner exchanges. Less likely would be an outright pardon, perhaps in connection with the beginning of Ramadan o/a September 22-23. If the best-case scenario does not materialize, Doykov surmised that the nurses would have to wait until after Ramadan for the Higher Judicial Council -- a political body chaired by the Minister of Justice -- to act. 4. (C) Doykov said that the bi-weekly court appearances were taking a heavy psychological toll on the five nurses, several of whom were already in poor health after seven years in Libyan prisons. Meanwhile, the GOB is pushing ahead with plans for a meeting of the Bulgaria-Libya Joint Commission focusing on economic issues, which last met in 1999. A team of Libyan officials headed by the chief of the MFA's Directorate for International Cooperation is scheduled to visit Sofia September 19-20. The Bulgarians consider the timing of the visit a positive sign. On the parallel issue of debt forgiveness, "the paperwork has already been completed" to forgive Libya's debt to Bulgaria. All that is required is a formal decision by the Council of Ministers to forgive the debt -- estimated at roughly USD 27 million -- once the nurses are released. The Bulgarians intention is to package this as part of the Benghazi process. 5. (C) COMMENT. Bulgarians are not prone to optimism even in the best of circumstances, but Doykov was the least pessimistic that we have ever seen him. The Bulgarians clearly believe they are approaching the end-game in this seven-year saga. At the same time, Doykov asked for continued strong U.S. and EU engagement until the nurses are released. The Bulgarians are convinced that the U.S. is the only party with enough leverage to convince Libya to step up to the plate and take what may be a politically difficult decision to send these five nurses back to Bulgaria. END COMMENT KARAGIANNIS
